arcus's Trades

#61
Some similarities between the Sensex in 1982-84 and 2012-14...

Even then we had this slow grinding slightly upward sloping channel for around 2-3 years.

 
#63
Hi arcus,
If we suppose it is of a same pattern, then what would be the expected Sensex/Nifty target?

Thanks
In 1984, when it broke out of the upper channel line, Sensex doubled from 300 to 600.

As for 2014, the upper channel line for the Nifty is currently at around 6700-6750 or so.

If we break that, then I think there is an extremely high probability that we may reach 10,000 on the Nifty in one year.

(Nifty EPS would be around 396 or so in 2015, so 10,000 would be a P/E of 25 which is very much possible in a bull market)

In either case, the point is not making 10,000 but staying above that and that requires a secular bull market.

I don't think we will see a secular bull market.

Even if we reach 10,000 we will most likely retrace most of it.
 
#65
I have completed one year trading as on March 1st 2014 (1/3/13 to 1/3/14)

It has been a good year and I managed to make 38.55% post brokerage and all other expenses and pre tax during this period.

I will not be able to spend much time this year (2014-15) on trading. But that will not stop me from taking positions :D

Instead of swing trading, I intend to do long term positional trading where I can manage my trades by looking at weekly charts.

Initiated my first trade of this new trading year (1-3-14 to 1-3-15) by buying the Nifty December 8000 CE @75.5 today

SL will be a close below 6000 on the weekly chart or time decay of 2% of my capital (i.e. 40 points) whichever happens first. Will add if we close above 6700 on the weekly.

I am expecting a major breakout to the upside. Let's see how things go.
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#66
If we break that, then I think there is an extremely high probability that we may reach 10,000 on the Nifty in one year.
I don't know whether Nifty will go to 10,000 or not, but there is a strong case for a bull market as long as the west remains stable.

India's economy is still growing fast in rupee terms (thanks to inflation). Sooner or later, this has to show up as increase in prices of different assets.
 
#67
I don't know whether Nifty will go to 10,000 or not, but there is a strong case for a bull market as long as the west remains stable.

India's economy is still growing fast in rupee terms (thanks to inflation). Sooner or later, this has to show up as increase in prices of different assets.
Yeah, I'm watching the S&P. It has entered bubble territory but the momentum is strong. The only thing that can poke that bubble is the trend in the US T Bills. The 10 year yield is around 2.7 now.

We have an upward trend in US Bond Yields and also an upward trend in US Stocks. This is extremely incompatible.

In any case, let's see how things pan out.

On another note, I bought 4 lots of USD-INR 62 PE @ 0.7 today. If we break 60.9 there is no support until 57 for the USD/INR Pair.
 
#68
Interesting. Russia is trading at 3.8 times P/E.

As Baron Rothschild once said - "The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." The market always over discounts known risks.

Are Russian stocks a screaming buy?

The Analysis given by that lady is interesting.

It amazes me that there is a way to even profit from potential import sanctions against Russia and that is by investing in domestic consumer names in Russia and it makes sense!

After all, Russia is the fifth largest consumer market and as the lady said, the people over there don't save much.
 
#70
How are you planning to play the election. Any F&O strategies?
It's still too early.

It really depends on your bias (long/short/neutral). If you want to short gamma, now would be a good time.

If you want to play it low risk, just buy a straddle/strangle a week before elections and sell it the day before the elections.

The gain in vega should offset the theta decay.

I haven't decided on my strategy yet. I'll post it here if I play the elections.
 
#71
Got out of all positions today.

S&P is at the year lows, unless there is support from the US markets, it's hard to imagine a sustained uptrend in our markets.

It will be a good short if we close below 6350.

Let's see how things pan out.
 
#73
Yeah, worded it incorrectly.

I meant S&P 500 Erased 2014 gains

Apart from the S&P 500 (American Major index), I watch 3 other indices, DAX (Europe Major), Shanghai (Asia Major) and Nikkei (Risk mood) and all the others are also near this year lows.

Nevertheless, we could still see an India specific rally but I need to see some more evidence of an uptrend before I commit some money to the trade or else it might end up as a fantasy speculation.
 
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