Exit Poll & 2009 Election: Market Movement?

San Yad

Active member
#1
Today is the last phase of election and exit poll is going to predict:

Who (Party) will be in Power?

First thing : what will be the impact on our market after the exit poll prediction?

How you will see the market if :

Case 1;
BJP forms govt with alliance?

Case 2;
Congress comes in power again?

Case 3;
None of above can form the govt?

What are your view in such scenario?

Happy and safe investing!
 

ramkasi

Active member
#2
for case 1 and 2 market don't care about who form the govt in either these 2.

but clearly majority of those who missed the big rally want a communist FM and Maya as PM:D

for max.one day. ;).

but our poll result in this forum says NDA has edge.
 
Last edited:

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#3
exit polls are useless.

In most cases, exit polls have proved to be inaccurate.

I think markets will ignore all predictions and wait for the actual results to be declared.

the best thing that can happen for the markets is that NDA comes to power.

next best thing would be UPA in power, without the communists.

worst would be third front coming to power.

UPA or NDA coming to power are both positive for the long-term.

========================================

in the short-term, here is my opinion...:)..if

-NDA gets 50% seats or comes close to it.....Nifty will open 200+.

-UPA (minus communists) gets 50% seats or comes close to it....Nifty will open 150+.

-Third Front gets 35%+ seats....Nifty will open 100-.

-Third Front (non-NDA + non-UPA parties) gets 50% seats or comes close to it.....Nifty will open 200-.

-Communists + BSP + all those socialist parties get 50% seats....Nifty will open circuit down and halve in 3 days flat.
 
#6
The big question is, should we start accumulate some stocks in this falling situation?
please remember the US election Markets crashed after obama's winning....so don't buy for 1 day rally wait till finance minister get appointed...Because after government formation market men might speculate for who will be next FM...so keep waiting on my view..:).
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#7
The big question is, should we start accumulate some stocks in this falling situation?
I would like to buy on dips, but I would prefer a deeper correction than just 100-200 points on the Nifty.

At 12000, the Sensex is already at around 13 times FY 2010's expected earnings (900-950) and no longer looks cheap.
 

San Yad

Active member
#8
So UPA is suppose to be in power now as this parrty is leading and will be invited to form govt as per Indian Law..

So let think about our market now..

At least we will break 3717 on Monday certainly where we were struggling for a long time.

I feel that we are heading towards 4300+ after 3850 break.

What you think about the market opening in next week?

and how long it will stay higher?

I don't think global market is out of wood yet?

Happy Investing!
 
Top