HDIL (Housing Development and Infrastructure Limited)

#1
dear alchemist,
I have been alloted 45 shares of HDIL. I would like to know at level should I sell them? what should be my strategy on the listing day? Last week the BSE Realty index went up by 10 percent. Taking this into consideration and good track record of the promoters of hdil, I think I should sell hdil at 560. whats ur take on this? Awaiting eagerly for ur reply:D
regards,
visu
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#2
dear alchemist,
I have been alloted 45 shares of HDIL. I would like to know at level should I sell them? what should be my strategy on the listing day? Last week the BSE Realty index went up by 10 percent. Taking this into consideration and good track record of the promoters of hdil, I think I should sell hdil at 560. whats ur take on this? Awaiting eagerly for ur reply:D
regards,
visu
HDIL doesn't have much premium in the grey market right now - only around Rs 30. That is just 6% of the offer price.

HDIL is just another real estate company and not much to get excited about. 80% of its land bank is in Mumbai Suburbs - Vasai and Virar.

Although the company is trying to diversify its portfolio, it will take some time. For next few years, the company's revenues and profits will depend a lot on real estate prices in these two regions.

With a post-IPO PE of almost 20 it looks fairly valued.

Consulting firms Knight Frank and Cushman & Wakefield have valued HDIL's land bank NPV to be Rs 1004 and Rs 1049 per share respectively. This makes the stock look dirt cheap at Rs 500. If these two consulting firms are correct, investors will be richly rewarded in next year or two.

First Global has valued HDIL's land bank NPV at Rs 489 per share. If First Global is correct, then there isn't much upside to the stock left. At Rs 530, the stock would be at 10% premium to its NPV. Many companies of size similar to HDIL are actually trading at 10%-15% discount to their NPVs.

The fact is I don't understand land bank valuations. Real Estate is not a business like IT services or capital goods, where the orders are already known in advance; and revenues are easy to predict.

In real estate sector, demand changes every month. Real estate is one of the most volatile financial assets. No one can predict, what real estate prices will be, one year from now.

Also growth in real estate is not linear. Infosys always shows steady growth - year after year. Don't expect real estate stocks to do that. In some years, real estate prices rise sharply and then for some years they decline and remain flat. Real estate is very cyclical in nature.

It is this uncertainty that keeps me out of the real estate sector
.

I have no doubt that real estate will show very strong growth in the long term, but I have no idea which companies will shine and which will vanish. Bigger players like DLF and Unitech will most probably survive because of their size, but I am not sure about any of the smaller and mid-sized companies.

If I were in your place, I would sell on listing and take my profits. I cannot predict the future of real estate stocks and so I stay away.
 
#4
I think the price must be Rs 468.50 and not 168.50



The price is below all important moving averages.
There is no buy signal or break-out still yet seen.
Only positive could be that RSI is in Over-sold zone, which could bring a bounce-back.

If you are a trader, it's better to book profit around Rs 560 (23.6% retrenchment of current downward rally)
Next level is around Rs 620 (Strong resistance as coincidently both 38.2% retrenchment of current downward rally and previous lower high are at 620 level)


For down-trend it has support at Rs 427 on trend line.
 
#5
HDIL Looks oversold

HDIL at current price looks oversold and continuously falling though it has good land bank in Mumbai region.

Is there any news or reason for pulling down of the share price?
 
#6
Hdil

i have bought shares of this firm on 10th of this month.
i bought 100 shares on 100/-,
averaged again at 96/- by buying 50 shares.

So, my question is should i buy this stock more during its price fall or should i book my profit if i m getting good price, also can you tell me the technical perspective of this firm.

Thank you.
 

man4urheart

Well-known member
#7
Roughly!

First target around 150. Book partial profits!

Then further you can take at Fibonacci 50% or 38.2% levels!

Charts and precise target will post in evening!

Fibonacci Calculations

23.6% = 144
38.2% = 179
50% = 207
61.8% = 235
 
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Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#9
ok..technically where do you see this scrip 4 - 5 yrs down the line.
It isn't possible to make such long-term predictions based on technical analysis.

In the short-term, the stock may rally to around 145.

The stock had fallen very sharply and bounce back was imminent.

I chose HDIL as

-HDIL has most of its landbank/projects in Mumbai, which is much more stable market compared to other cities.
-HDIL doesn't have immediate need to raise any funds. (Management's view; see note below).
-HDIL is very attractive on PE basis (PE of 2). (Earnings may fall sharply in the next 2-3 quarters).
-HDIL had fallen 90% from its top and was technically very oversold.

There is still not enough clarity in the market and I would prefer to exit around 145.

============================

Note:

Management's view:

So as of now, there is no requirement for any sort of capital expenditure. But we are funding execution through our internal accruals.
 

ramkasi

Active member
#10
Hdil

Dear Admin

HDIL has exited the oil and gas exploration BIZ (source:CNBC),what could be the effect on it's numbers going forward?

Is it worthy to have the stock in the portfolio for long term [(3-4years) 15% of portfolio].

i am thinking seriously to take this stock, got stuck between this and GMR inf.

regards

Ram
 
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Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#11
Dear Admin

HDIL has exited the oil and gas exploration BIZ (source:CNBC),what could be the effect on it's numbers going forward?

Is it worthy to have the stock in the portfolio for long term [(3-4years) 15% of portfolio].

i am thinking seriously to take this stock, got stuck between this and GMR inf.

regards

Ram
No effects on numbers of HDIL.

The oil and gas business wasn't doing anything.

15% allocation would be too risky - especially if it's a real estate stock.

The pain in real estate has just started and may last for another 2-3 quarters.

Just last week, Orbit Corporation and Wadhwa group cut their Mumbai prices by 20%.

In fact, if credit markets don't unfreeze, things can get much worse from here for the real estate sector.

The stocks of real estate companies are already discounting this slowdown to some extent.

However, I feel there may be some further downside in these stocks.

I had bought HDIL around 100 and suggested an exit around 145. (See earlier post).

HDIL looks a bit attractive around Rs 100, but I would prefer to wait another 4-6 months before buying any real estate stock.

=================================

Infrastructure is a similar story. The main problem for infrastructure sector is that it needs to borrow a lot of money for its projects.

Banks/institutions are very reluctant to lend right now and interest rates are still a bit high.

Interest rates may come down in future, but credit availability and slowing economic growth may still be a problem for infrastructure companies.

Anyway, I don't understand much about GMR's valuations and it's a avoid stock for me (neither buy nor sell)...:D.
 
#13
wow!!...guys.. any views on the huge upswing on this stock?

I have a handful of stocks left in my portfolio..do you suggest a sell-all at this level? or is there some upside still left in it?
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#14
wow!!...guys.. any views on the huge upswing on this stock?

I have a handful of stocks left in my portfolio..do you suggest a sell-all at this level? or is there some upside still left in it?
I won't sell all stocks.

The bear market is now over...so correct strategy would be "buy on dips" and not "sell on rises".

However, many stocks in the derivatives segment have risen sharply because of short-covering.

These may correct in days to come.

If you have any stock that has moved very sharply this week, you may sell fully or partially.

I have just sold two stocks today....and HDIL is one of them...:D.

(Other is ICICI Bank).
 
#15
next target for HDIL?

From the high 1200 before Jan 21st carnage to lows of 65, this march, the retracement targets would come to

1. 428.574
2. 541.5
3. 654.426

is this a possibility?

sorry to day..but i hv lost lot of my technical analysis skill I learnt here due to inactivity :(

so not confident enough to make statements.. but will always want to confirm my analysis....
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#16
From the high 1200 before Jan 21st carnage to lows of 65, this march, the retracement targets would come to

1. 428.574
2. 541.5
3. 654.426

is this a possibility?

sorry to day..but i hv lost lot of my technical analysis skill I learnt here due to inactivity :(

so not confident enough to make statements.. but will always want to confirm my analysis....
There is another less used ratio too....23.6%.

That was almost touched yesterday.

The exact retracement levels (NSE) would be as follows:

bull market top: 1113.74
bear market bottom: 62.65

difference: 1051.09

bottom + 23.6 % of difference = 62.65 + 248.06 = 310.71
bottom + 38.2 % of difference = 62.65 + 401.52 = 464.17
bottom + 50.0 % of difference = 62.65 + 525.55 = 588.2
bottom + 61.8 % of difference = 62.65 + 649.57 = 712.32

technically, it looks to have started a new bull phase again, but is overbought in short-term and may correct a bit from these levels.

it may go to to around 464.17 in few months or maybe weeks.

if you have large profits, you may book partially.

(I had bought around 100 and so I booked full profits).

I don't really believe in the Elliot Wave Theory, but as a large percentage of traders use it to decide support/resistance levels and targets, I use it in such a case.

the chart below shows the retracement levels.

BSE retracement levels may be slightly different.

 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#18
Hi Alchemist

Today it is @ 306... n I am looking to get into this stock for 6-12 months...

what's your call on this?
Even though the stock seems to have bottomed out for good, HDIL looks extremely overbought now.

You can buy a small quantity now and average it out if you get a price of around Rs 200.

The stock has had a one-way rally for 62 to 300+ levels and if it starts to correct, the correction will be fast and deep.
 

San Yad

Active member
#19
Even though the stock seems to have bottomed out for good, HDIL looks extremely overbought now.

You can buy a small quantity now and average it out if you get a price of around Rs 200.

The stock has had a one-way rally for 62 to 300+ levels and if it starts to correct, the correction will be fast and deep.
I feel that most of the infra and real estate counters are over-bought.

Is there any counter left that we can look into at this stage? my answer for it is No.

We also hope that next week market will show positive signs because of govt portfolio.. We may see corrections before 2009-10 budget restructure formation only..

What you guys think?
 
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