IFCI - Industrial Finance Corporation of India

#1
Alchemist,

What is your take on IFCI?

There is a speculation going that big companies are in talk of buying 26% stake in IFCI and IFCI has valued themselves @ 70/share.
 

Shals

New member
#2
IFCI

Dear Alchemist,

I've bought IFCI at 88. should I hold or sell. It is currently trading at 82? What is the one month view of this stock.
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#3
65-70 is considered a fair value for IFCI by many bidders.

It is unlikely that any bidder will bid above Rs 100.

It is difficult to predict how much the bidders will bid. Only a few bidders remain in the race now, so they need not bid aggressively to win this one.

At 85, it is exactly in the middle of the range that I think is possible Rs 70 - Rs 100.

If you want to take the risk and hold the stock, you may.

I would sell the stock if I get close to Rs 89.
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#6
Without a strategic partner, there is not much left in the company.

IFCI does not even have sufficient capital adequacy to start its lending business on full scale.

This is one of the worst financial companies listed on the exchanges today.

I would not touch this stock.

It doesn't make sense to buy IFCI at 77. Every time the stock will go near 90, people will start selling and the stock will come down again.

The risk-reward is not favorable.

If you want to buy, but in small lots at 66, 61, 56.
 
#7
technical analysis!!

Hi

Check this chart..



1. It's a triangle formation. I think we should be looking closely at the break out direction...[I'm not sure if the triangle I have formed is correct as i have used the lower shadow to form the triangle...could some1 please confirm this!!]

2. The triangle also engulfs a rising flag (marked in green).

3. there is also a reversal bullish pattern of three soldiers(in blue oval).

Overall, there has been two bullish movements broken within this triangle formation..I think this would result in a break-out of the triangle on the lower side.

There is also a long term support line of around 47, (not marked)which has never been touched in the last 9 months(except for an intraday low)!

and the resistance is seen at 72(support turned resistance), though there is no confirmation yet on the chart, the last time the price hit 72, the rising flag was broken!!

I don't see any strong support at current range.

please comment.
 
Last edited:

man4urheart

Well-known member
#8
- This is just Traingle Formation, with accompanied decreasing volumes.
- Shows indecision. Traingle is yet not broken.
- Wait for breakout. I don't think you can identify a breakout from this.
- There is no Three White Soldier pattern, it is just three white candles, as second/middle White candle body is not engulfed inside First Candle body.
 
#9
- This is just Traingle Formation, with accompanied decreasing volumes.
- Shows indecision. Traingle is yet not broken.
- Wait for breakout. I don't think you can identify a breakout from this.
- There is no Three White Soldier pattern, it is just three white candles, as second/middle White candle body is not engulfed inside First Candle body.
Thanks.

I am more concerned on the triangle itself. I have considered the lower shadow as one of the vertex, is that fine?

Also, the side moving up is steeper than the one coming down. Can this be considered bullish trend (continuation)?
 
#11
Ifci

Hi,

What's the position of IFCI. I have bought it in the high fifties so would averaging it out around 25 makes sense assuming we have seen the worse of it and would go above 25 in the next 6 months or so from the current levels of ~18?

Thanks.
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#13
I have started liking IFCI now. :D.

In his budget speech, the finance minister had indicated that new banking licenses may be issued to NBFCs.

In my opinion, of all the listed NBFCs, IFCI is the most eligible for a banking license.

A banking license will change the whole game from IFCI and the stock may see a major re-rating.

What do you think guys?
 

San Yad

Active member
#14
I have started liking IFCI now. :D.

In his budget speech, the finance minister had indicated that new banking licenses may be issued to NBFCs.

In my opinion, of all the listed NBFCs, IFCI is the most eligible for a banking license.

A banking license will change the whole game from IFCI and the stock may see a major re-rating.

What do you think guys?
Should also include IDFC in your list too then :D.
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#15
Should also include IDFC in your list too then :D.
I would have included IDFC in my list, but IDFC itself doesn't want to be a bank.

The management has categorically stated they don't want to apply for a banking license and they prefer to run the company as an "Infrastructure NBFC".

For IDFC to be a focused financial platform, it is best in class at infrastructure financing rather than become just another bank.
Not applying for banking licence, says IDFC.
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#17
Is the list in the public domain?
My list?

I don't have any such list, but I looked at a few "probables" and found IFCI to be one of the most likely to get a banking license.

- No shareholder has more than 10% stake in IFCI.
- IFCI has a networth of more than Rs 1000 crore. (More than 4000 crore at the end of FY 2010).
- IFCI is not controlled by an "industrial house".

The detailed guidelines have not be issued yet, but are expected by the end of this month (July 2010).

"Principle for draft guidelines underpinning new bank license (is) likely this month," Financial Services Secretary R Gopalan told reporters after a meeting between Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, PSU heads and chief ministers of northern states.
Source: Draft norms on bank licences later this month: Gopalan.
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#20
Again for trading or now you want to accumulate for investing?

I have been watching this but its in range bound.

If it closes at Rs 63. I might ride it too. :).
I am playing only for the banking license.

(RBI may come out with a discussion paper on new banking license guidelines by the end of this week).

In my opinion, at 61-62, IFCI is fairly valued and if it doesn't get the banking license, there may be some downside (20%).

However, if it does manage to get a banking license, I see a significant upside (50%).
 
Top