Is US Going to Default?

What are the chances for debt ceiling to be increased on Aug 2? I read several articles mentioning that debt limit has been increased many times till now and it will happen again. But few articles mention that this time it would fail and result in default.

How about our markets with the above situation on top of existing macro factors already effecting the indices. Is it going to be another 2008?


Staff member
In my opinion, the probability of the debt ceiling being raised is 99.9%.

If US defaults, it will lead to a global financial catastrophe.

It won't be another 2008. It will be much worse than that.

Nobody wants to take the blame for such a catastrophe and thus US politicians will allow the government to borrow more.


One day, US will eventually default.

However, that wouldn't happen because its politicians will prevent the government from borrowing.

It would happen because its lenders will refuse to lend further.

That day is still some time away. Maybe a few months or few years away.