Market outlook for the next 3 months

#1
So the FED cut is out. And it has had an opposite effect on the emerging markets.
The Markets, which were expecting 50 basis cut, have to make do with a 25 one.
Also, the FED has warned that it may not be feasible to cut rates further due to growing inflation.
This is the year end. We do see a 2-3% fall during year end. But now the markets have started early. Already for today the Nikkei is down by 100. So we are having a short bear phase.

Is this a good entry point to enter in the market?
Some experts like Mr. Udayan Mukherjee of TV-18 and others are of the opinion that it is likely that mid-cap rallies will take a backseat for now.

What are the likely sectors or stocks which might gain momentum in the new year?
Has banking still got potential to rise?? What about Auto parts and Hotel sectors?

Any good picks?;);)
 
#2
The current fall in indian market is greatly due to the global impact of bearish feeling. As you can see almost every market in asia has experienced notable fall. We are not exception. The fact the FED rate cuts, X-mas and year end have come together and thats why the bearish mode. I feel it will take January to stabilize global market. As for India, I see market stabilising at jan end with SENSEX around 20,700, thats just a guess work friends.
 
#4
The Asian Markets are on a downward trend.

What is the outlook for midcaps? Udayan Mukherjee is quite negative about them.
Is it time to pull out from some of them??
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#5
The Asian Markets are on a downward trend.

What is the outlook for midcaps? Udayan Mukherjee is quite negative about them.
Is it time to pull out from some of them??
Another rate cut is coming for sure.

The way the US economy is performing, the fed has no other choice, but to cut rates.

Next Fed meet is scheduled on January 29th - 30th.

Dollar may also weaken further and it is better to stay away from stocks of companies exporting to US.

My guess is markets will not see much weakness till the budget.

Taking a blanket call on midcaps is improper - one should look at each stock individually.
 

man4urheart

Well-known member
#6
I agree with Alchemist!....Not All MIDCAP can be shunned.....

Sometimes I think these guys on CNBC are controlling markets indirectly by getting people hooked up to their views.....
 
#7
Tell me about it. I bought some shares of Gujarat Ambuja Exports at 100.00/- when the 200 crore European Contract thing was all over the place...

Today it closed at a little under 94/- My loss is not that great as I only bought 50 shares and actually decided to gamble with that money and forget it as it was the first share I bought without anyones recomendation.

Now I know never to do that again :)
 
#8
volatility driven market

My guess is, market is gonna be highly volatile for the next few days. Take today for instance, it was abt 200 point up at 11:00 am and closed abt 300 pts down.

Stocks like REL were all over the place. I bought it at 2607 seeing the market going up, but it closed at 2463. :( I'm although hopeful for REL to gain more as Rel Power comes to the market.
 
#9
The fii and mf flows were positive for 1st jan to 10th jan ... the index didnt fall heavily compared to midcaps and smallcaps ... were they switching ??
 
#10
Where does the market goes from here

Market down about 8-9% this week. Where does it go from here? What is the trend now? Experts at CNBC say it has more downside. what should be the plan of action now?
 
#12
Even after a wave of rate cuts, the world markets are not reviving. Experts were talking of Robust Indian economy and the faith FIIs have in it.

But FIIs are pulling out like anything.

Suddenly, even the QIBs are finding IPOs overvalued. These are the same people who made over subscriptions to recent IPOs which were highly overvalued.

Is this pointing to a short term Bear trend??

P.S.- Does it not make you feel better that SEBI banned PNs months in advance? I think if PN were there, we would have been sitting on a 15000 market instead of 18000 one!!!:):)

 
#13
These markets have started giving me nightmares. I just cannot decide whether to hold on (To my MFs and few stocks). Or be prudent and exit!!

Top managers and experts are giving very -ve opinion for the markets over the next months.

Here are some excerpts I went through today-

Mkts could fall another 10% in near-term: First Global

Mkts to touch Jan lows in few weeks: Experts

He is the gloomiest of all-

Sensex may test 14K, then slip to 12K: Marc Faber


If this is true, wont it be prudent to book whatever profits/losses we have right now and exit the markets?
 
#14
This looks gloomy for sure, but I think we might be jumping the gun if we take the profits/losses right now.

I'm really a noob in the markets and my experience starts only from August last year. What could be the extent of the bear market? What if I'm looking for a long term point of view say 5+ years? Should I take out the money in that case as well, if this is a bear market?

I guess bear market might prove to be an accumulation opportunity for someone who has a long term horizon. But first it needs to be confirmed that this is a bear phase in the making.
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#15
These markets have started giving me nightmares. I just cannot decide whether to hold on (To my MFs and few stocks). Or be prudent and exit!!

Top managers and experts are giving very -ve opinion for the markets over the next months.

Here are some excerpts I went through today-

Mkts could fall another 10% in near-term: First Global

Mkts to touch Jan lows in few weeks: Experts

He is the gloomiest of all-

Sensex may test 14K, then slip to 12K: Marc Faber

If this is true, wont it be prudent to book whatever profits/losses we have right now and exit the markets?
First Global's view a few months back:

We think that the market may go to 25,000 or may be 28,000 for the simple reason that India is at high teen multiples and is seen as an overvalued market and nobody seems to have the same kind of concerns at least as vocally as in India on the Chinese market’s valuation. Our sense is that India deserves to trade relative to China at a far higher valuation. The valuation gap is just way too much.


Sensex may have eps of Rs 1150 in FY 2010. A highly conservative forward PE of 12 would mean 13800 by April 2009.

Even if Sensex were to crash to 12000, I do not see it staying at those levels for more than a few weeks.

==========================================

It may be very much possible that January lows may be retested again and even violated.

See my post 19 in this thread - Sensex's critical supports. I was expecting a second sell-off.

A correction from 18895 to 16457 has happened, but this may just be the first wave of this second sell-off. Next few days will tell the full story.

==========================================

Right now, I am neutral on the markets. Neither buying nor selling. The markets are in a state of confusion and can break out in either direction.

Your buying/selling decision should be based on individual stocks and not overall markets.

At 17 times forward earnings, I thinks markets are fairly valued at this moment.

If someone were to ask me for a target of Sensex in April 2009, I would say

Pessimistic target: 13800 (12 times FY 2010 eps).
Fair target: 17250 (15 times FY 2010 eps).
Optimistic target: 20700 (18 times FY 2010 eps).
 
#16
With the IAEA talks due for finalization anytime soon, we may be looking at elections also shortly. This may also have a significant effect on the movement of the market.
 
#17
I can't understand one thing
Lot of NFO's are coming and people are investing in these NFO's. Also people are buying Tax saver funds(due to financial year closing and tax benefits) along with regular SIPS and regular buying of MF's
So MF companies are having lot of money lying in their kitty .. so they shd buy shares then why market cannot rise ...:confused:
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#18
I can't understand one thing
Lot of NFO's are coming and people are investing in these NFO's. Also people are buying Tax saver funds(due to financial year closing and tax benefits) along with regular SIPS and regular buying of MF's
So MF companies are having lot of money lying in their kitty .. so they shd buy shares then why market cannot rise ...:confused:
Investors had been buying shares from 2003-2007.

The proportion of investors who want to get out of the market is very big.

I can't put a number to it, but the overhang is much bigger than the Rs 10000 crore cash reserves, with Domestic Institutional Investors.

To stabilize the markets, we will need a change in sentiment.

Unless the sentiment changes, all buying will be met by selling at higher levels.
 
#20
May - June will be the time for most ARM Reset in US. Based on that, the subprime will hit the local banks and domino effect. Also considering that there is going to be increase in food grains, my guess is between <13,000 and upside if none of the above happens would be, as you guessed, >18000.
this Q will be very crucial.. this will decide which way it will be for the rest of the year... IMHO :)
 
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