NSE Nifty - Technical Analysis

man4urheart

Well-known member
#1


- Nifty is trading in a channel and is heading for Double top marked by bLue line, a resistance formed earlier.
- Also note how each trendline forms a resistance and how particular day rise ended at those lines.



- A advance signal will be generated by MACD or RSI , they will break the trend lines drawn earlier than price.
- Also MACD is below its signal line, which means its has to be watched in coming week.
- At 5401 lies the Fibonacci's target of 50%., So 5400 would be very tough level in coming days.
 
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man4urheart

Well-known member
#2
NSE Nifty Analysis


Patterns
-Below 4700 nifty will finish Head & Shoulder Pattern in weekly chart, which has bearish implications.

Giving credit to my Technical guru (Rajiv Khatlawala) for this pattern, for more details read this post

http://technicalcalls-by-rajivkhatlawala.blogspot.com/2008/05/nifty-weekly-chart-analysis.html

- With this breakout of trend line, Nifty also Failed the Inverse Bullish H&S Pattern.


This pattern was made visible from Ultimate analysis of Alchemist

http://www.e-investing.in/showthread.php?t=1369&page=2

See Post number 51 on above link


- The short term Head and shoulder pattern is completed and Target is 4792

Trend
- Long term Trend line is placed at 4471

Supports & Resistance
- 4781 is also Fibonacci retracement 61.8% target short-term.
- 4227 is Fibonacci retracement 38.2% target Long term.
- Resistance - 5029, 200 Day EMA.
- Trendline broken at 5008, will also act as a resistance.
- RSI has also broken the swing.

Weekly Pivots

Giving credit to my Technical guru (Rajiv Khatlawala) for importance of calculating Pivots, for more details read this post

http://technicalcalls-by-rajivkhatlawala.blogspot.com/2008/05/using-pivot-point-levels.html

R2 = 5333
R1 = 5245
Pivot = 5079
S1 = 4991
S2= 4826

To negate the view NIFTY has to rise above the pivot = 5079
 
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man4urheart

Well-known member
#3
Today Nifty almost kissed it's support 4800 below which they say it is COLD and DARK

ADX for Nifty which predicts the trend is below 20 for long time and almost all indicators are set for a breakout!

Tonight's US market closing will guide the market but if it falls below 4800. Time to SHORT!
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#4
The Nifty also has support around 4725.

The Nifty is still above its long-term trendline and this will meet the Nifty around 4725.

If Nifty doesn't go down in next few days, the trendline will rise to meet it.

The trendline is rising 7 points per trading day or 35 points per week.

In March, Nifty had
bounced back strongly from the trendline, but has failed to make a new high.

A break below the trendline should be considered a strong bearish sign.



 

man4urheart

Well-known member
#5
Can you explain this

The trendline is rising 7 points per trading day or 35 points per week.
My understanding for Trendlines was once they are drawn, "in this case by joining lower lows" would remain intact.

Once a new low is formed, then you have to manually adjust it!. How did you do above calculation of it's movement?

Indeed Alchemist you are correct. Long Term trend line is placed near 4759(Marked in yellow color Line). Also bearish engulfing Pattern is there!

 
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man4urheart

Well-known member
#6
NIFTY Analysis - W22

Monthly View



- On Monthly charts MACD crossed below signal line in year 2000 and we stayed in Trading zone for 3 years. This also was the IT bubble burst!
- This year after Jan correction also triggered Crossover after 5 years. Point to note is that this is unique because we have corrections earlier every year but MACD stayed above signal line confirming those as corrections, but this one seems to signal trend reversal.
- Also our view is further confirmed by RSI breaking it's SWING shown by green line

Daily View



- Target is achieved!

What next?



- We are trading in a down channel.
- ADX = 17.6 is also below 20 and a rise above 20 will signal strong trend!. We are on verge of trend forming! Taking cues from Monthly charts, MACD and RSI placement on daily charts. We will head down probably.
- Yellow line is Long term trendline of nifty. Breakout below same will trigger strong downfall and Down trend.

Pivots
R2=5235
R1=5090
Pivot= 5015
S1=4871
S2=4796

Rise above 5015 will negate the view for short term. Anything close to Pivot should be used for starting SHORT positions.
Stop loss = 5016
Firm close below 4796 should be used for adding to your shorts!

Supports & Resistance
- 4781 Fibonacci retracement 61.8% target short-term.
- 4227 Fibonacci retracement 38.2% target Long term.
 
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Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#7
Nifty is resting on its long-term trendline now.

Most probably, the index will go below the trendline in a few days... maybe today itself.

If the Nifty goes below the trendline, both Sensex and Nifty will be below their 5-year trendlines.

We can safely conclude that the bull markets of these indices are over for now.

This may be followed by either a consolidation phase or a corrective phase.

================================================

(Look at the first chart in post #4.

I drew the original trendline from lows of April 2003 and May 2004.

Once drawn, this trendline has never been violated and so I never had to redraw it.

In June 2006, Nifty came within 85 points (2595 and 2521) of the trendline.

In March 2008, the index reversed exactly after touching the trendline).

 

man4urheart

Well-known member
#9
Here is action of today!



- Yellow line(4725) is Long Term Nifty Line not broken for 5 years!

Nifty has to rise above weekly Pivot = 4876 to change to bullish view!
 
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Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#10
alchemist,, do you think we can go short now on the markets...
The bias is downwards.

I think we may get a small bounce from these levels.

The Nifty managed to close above its long-term trendline.

I am not sure how high the Nifty can go, but a short position have a stoploss of around 5015.

(The 200 day EMA is at 5015 and is falling).

I would be comfortable shorting around 4900, but I am not sure if I will get 4900 this week.
 

man4urheart

Well-known member
#11
Here is action of today!



Today we firmly close below Support as well as long term trend line !

Daily Pivot = 4696 (Stop Loss)

We have also broken the neckline for Inverse Head & Shoulder (check post no 2 in this thread). Since we have not finished the week yet, it is not confirmed yet!

NIFTY Target for same is 3935. SO by end of this week we will know what we will see in coming weeks!
 
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man4urheart

Well-known member
#12
Pivots for this week

R2=5063
R1= 4845
Pivot= 4690
S1 = 4473
S2 = 4318

Tomorrow is day for SHORT and Recovery could also be fast so use trailing stop loss!
 

man4urheart

Well-known member
#13
From Nifty charts the trend is down! You can already see clearly in above charts 50 EMA is trending down!

I expect a rise towards 50 EMA! or further correction.

There is nothing new to show this week!

No positions traded, only watching!, Have some rest folks!
 

man4urheart

Well-known member
#14


- ADX going Strong!
- Target is 4002(Aug 2007 Low).

Daily Pivot for Monday

R1= 4563
Pivot =4526
S1 = 4469
S2 = 4429

Weekly Pivot
R2 = 4799
R1 = 4573
Pivot = 4453
S1= 4227
S2 = 4107

Any body holding Shorts should lock profits near Weekly Pivots Supports!
 

man4urheart

Well-known member
#15
- ADX is going strong above 40, means the current downtrend is very strong

Following are calculated weekly pivot, Daily Pivot, Resistance, Supports levels for NIfty

 
#18
Man, here is what I did:

Nifty July Future:

Price: 3928
Sell: 100
Stop Loss: 4273

The current price for Nifty July Future is 4090. What do you suggest I should do? Do you see it coming down around 3800 within this month or do you see it hitting my predefined stop loss?
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#19
Man, here is what I did:

Nifty July Future:

Price: 3928
Sell: 100
Stop Loss: 4273

The current price for Nifty July Future is 4090. What do you suggest I should do? Do you see it coming down around 3800 within this month or do you see it hitting my predefined stop loss?
You shorted an oversold market.

and it bounced-back sharply.

Right now the Nifty is just below its 21-day EMA.

The 21-day EMA has proved to be a strong resistance and prices have been below it for last 8 weeks.

If you are lucky, the price will again fall from the 21-day EMA.

However, I think this time the market has the momentum to go above it and touch the 50-day EMA.

50-day EMA is at 4386 right now (Nifty Futures).

The thick blue ribbon is the 21-day EMA and green ribbon is the 50-day EMA.

 
#20
thanks for your reply...but what about long term? do you see this rally as the end of the bear market or can it still go below its previous lows?
 
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