Real Estate in India in a Bubble?

Is India in a real estate bubble?


  • Total voters
    0

Atiker

Active member
#41
Will this news have trickle down effect on India's real estate?
The Great Property Bubble of China May Be Popping - WSJ.com
Quote from the above link

Beijing has one of the most expensive real-estate markets in the world relative to the income of its citizens. Calculations based on Soufun data show that in the opening months of 2006 an average-price new apartment in China's capital would cost around $100,000—the equivalent of 32 years' disposable income for the average resident. By 2011, the average price had more than doubled to $250,000, but relatively modest increases in income mean it would now take 57 years of saving for the average resident to cover the cost.
 
#43
I've been house hunting in Pune for the past 6 months, specifically in the Wakad & Hinjewadi area. Most of the times I looked to buy, but often I got frustrated with prices and looked out for rental properties.

Looking back at notes/offers I made at various points, my conclusion for that area:

- Rental market is hot. If a house comes on rent, it will be taken up within 2 weeks if the rent increase is below 10%

- The Sale/Re-Sale market is illogical. I have seen properties on the market for months. In fact there is one property I saw in Blue Ridge complex that has been there for a long time and all the brokers I have talked to have tried to sell that one to me. (Blue Ridge is the most premium property in the Wakad, Hinjwedai, Marunji area)

- In the past 3 months, resale prices have flattened (though builders continue to pump them up for new projects).

- It is impossible to get anything for rent/resale without going through a broker. Most properties were bought by Mumbai investors 3-4 years ago and they dont have time to come to Pune.

I made two offers for apartments in Blue Ridge that fell through. So have decided to take something on rent again.

I have been stuggling to understand the logic of prices in this region. The area is home to the IT industry and IT employess by far are the largest customers, both for buying and renting. Considering that prices have reached 70-80Lakhs for 2BHK and 80K-1.1Cr for 3BHK, I wonder who is buying these? The salaries in IT field are higher than average but even then it will not be possible to buy these unless both husband and wife are working.


Considering base price of 70L, the final price including brokerage comes to around 75.5L

For this you must have cash of 19.3L. (14L for the 20% cash part of the loan and 5.3L for registration, stampduty, 2% broker comission)

A loan of 80% for the rest at 10.25% interest for 15 years means an EMI of Rs 55,000

To afford an EMI of 55,000 you probably need post-tax monthly income of 80,000 minimum.

Even in the IT industry few are earning > 80K per month post-tax. And the number of houses being built far exceed the number of such people.

I've decided to wait and watch the prices.
 
#44
Don't know how to express, but have "Exactly" same experience, Not similar but SAME.

I have been hunting since past 1+ year in Bangalore & Chennai.

In Bangalore - Decent house is costing around ~60 Lakh - 2BHK (~1100 sqF)
Surprisingly, Builders are holding the price, even the units are not getting sold.
( All I came to know is - chunk of money they are able to arrange - may be black, mostly by politician.)

In Chennai - the story is same, interestingly people say that Chennai is cheaper, but all I have learned is - it is costly. Even in extreme outskirts 2 BHK will cost 45 to 55L. But still people quickly book it.

At present - In India currently I see people are sitting on cash, wanted to buy property, but waiting for right time. but if you go in Market (Any), we'll listen/get the feeling that prices are going to go high.
(Consider, after BJP forms government, automatically price will go high by 10%..)
 
Top