sudhashbahu's Portfolio

Fellow forum members,

With due humbleness I list my portfolio on this thread. Please note that I am a lay investor and do not have any particular skill in either Technical or Fundamental Analysis.

I rely on "gut feel" and the discussions on this site to a great extent.

The contents of this thread should not be treated as "advice" in any manner.

If esteemed members feel that my portfolio is headed in the wrong direction, your advice is most welcome.

I will attempt to update the thread once a month or if/when I make significant purchase(s).

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Starting baseline

1. Oil Country Tubular @ Avg price of 102.38
2. TATA Elxsi @ Avg price of 88.84
3. Navneet Publications @ Avg price of 40.69
4. Indraprastha Gas @ Avg price of 101.57

1. HDFC Top 200 (G) @ Avg price of 168.75 [SIP of Rs 5000 per Month]
2. UTI Mastershare (D) @ FPO price of 10

1. TATA Capital NCDs @ IPO price of 1000

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Some Notes

While posting my porfolio, I did some analysis and here are some side-notes:

My gut-feel has given me more gains than any formal analysis. In fact whenever I try formal analysis I tend to make mistakes due to "half-knowledge". Alchemist has (rightfully) debunked many of my attempts in this regard.

Compact Disc Ltd has given me maximum loss. I tried formal analysis here. On paper this appeared to be a wonderful company with great potential. It turned out to be a fraud.

I was never able to time SESA GOA. I did not buy @95. (Chickened out at the order confirmation page after attempting to place order). Also sold at 267 in the recent rally. Could have got better returns.

Tech Mahindra gave me maximum gains. Bought at IPO and then added more post listing even when the listing was at considerable profit. This was pure gut feel that it will go higher.

My philosophy for the future for direct investments:

Try to be ethical. Share purchases make you the part owner of the company and I do not want to be involved in businesses such as Tobacco and Banks (Cheat existing loan holders on floating rates)

Avoid Reliance Companies.

Avoid companies that rely heavily on China for revenues or raw materials. I am going to sacrifice my love of SESA GOA due to this.

[Note: For obvious reasons, it is not possible to implement this philosophy for MF investments]

Good Portfolio, Sudashu, I would advice to add some nifty shares also to your portfolio, but the thing is cant find any value in the top nifty shares, they seem so overly priced

Better to add some on bad days
I get a feeling that the market is going to correct now. So I will not make any new investments for the next 3-4 months except:

1. I will continue my SIP of Rs 5000/month in HDFC Top 200
2. I may buy Oil Country Tubular Ltd in small quantities if the price moves below 120.

I am not planning to sell anything currently.

Why you are in hurry.. We all knows we are in corerction phase now.

Anyway, Keep Rs 100 as a stop loss. and accumulate about Rs 80 if you can get chance to do so.
No, particular reason to buy now :D. I have determined somewhat arbitrarily that below 120 this is a value buy.

Now below 120 I will buy at regular intervals. Today I bought it because it went below 120 after a long time.
Monthly Update Jan 2010

1. Oil Country Tubular 259 @ 109.57 <<< Update
2. TATA Elxsi 35 @ 88.84
3. Navneet Publications 124 @ 40.69
4. Indraprastha Gas 25 @ 101.57
5. Mangalam Cement 40 @ 131.60 <<< Update

Investment = 44336.84

1. TATA Capital NCDs 45 @ 1000

Investment = 45000.00

1. HDFC Top 200 (G) 57 @ 173.34 [SIP of Rs 5000 per Month] <<< Update
2. UTI Mastershare (D) 1080 @ 4.62

Investment = 15000.00
Short Term speculative strategy

OIL Country Tubular's (OCTL) Quarterly results will be released on Jan 21. I am hoping that the results will be good and that the price may reach 150 (on the basis of gut feel) post results.

Therefore as a short-term speculative strategy, I will attempt to buy a lot of Rs 5000 each day till 21st Jan.

I will put in a buy order everyday at 3:00 PM. If at that time weighted average price (WAP) for the day is greater that the LTP, I will put in a buy at LTP. If WAP < LTP I will put in a buy at WAP.
I will put in a buy order everyday at 3:00 PM. If at that time weighted average price (WAP) for the day is greater that the LTP, I will put in a buy at LTP. If WAP < LTP I will put in a buy at WAP.
I actually followed up with this plan and put in orders of Rs 5000 each day. Now my average cost is up to around Rs 120.

I also put in an intra-day MarginPLUS BUY at around 134 with a max margin risk of Rs 5000.

Oil Country results will be declared today and I am keeping my fingers crossed that it will deliver :D
Summary of misadventures

DEC09 results are disappointing. Stock is crashing down.

Summary of my misadventures:

1. The MarginPLUS trade for today resulted in a loss of Rs. 4669. :stupid:

2. I also sold the shares I had from delivery. The profit on this account came out to Rs. 9046.

I was lucky to get out with a NET profit of 4378 with valuable lessons.

Lessons learnt:
1. Never indulge in trading unless you know what you are doing. I generally don't, but I broke the rule today with devastating results.

2. Never be gung-ho on stocks that Alchemist cautions you on :D.

3. Don't be over confident on any stock.
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[Be sure to read my previous post in this thread]

Updated strategy:

1. Align portfolio with Alchemist
2. Continue SIP in MFs

As part of this stargegy I also booked profits in Navneet Publications.
Today L&T, Tommorow I expect Relaince to give the Jitters, Sometimes I feel its better to liquidate one's holding just before the results. especially when there is such a huge run up.

Oil Country results were disastrous, Wonder what happened, Anyway brother you made a profit, wish you the best, and hope you make up for the loses in MarginPlus in some other scrip