Technical Analysis for INR-USD

#1
Hello Everyone,

I am a new member on this forum. I am working on an academic project on USD INR movements and have to cover technical analysis on USD INR movements. I have read the TA basics but I am not able to apply those theoretical concepts on the USD/INR graph as I don't have access to any TA tools. I have gone through a few threads and noticed that senior members have posted some informative charts on USD/INR. Would it be possible for someone to send the set up to me?

I have access to some premium sites but they publish reports only on the currencies traded in the international market. There is not much information available on USD INR movements. It would be of great help if someone can send any reports or website links that contain information on the USD/INR movements.
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#2
You want just historical data?

or you want your data to be updated daily?

I have 1997-2008 price data if you want, but once you get it, you will have to update it yourself

You are right about theoretical concepts not really working in INR-USD movement.

The reason is that the market is dominated by one single player (RBI + other PSU banks that RBI controls).

RBI doesn't trade on charts.

It decides what the right levels should be for the INR and then tries to balance demand-supply around that level.
 
#3
Yes I want the historical data & any trends/patterns if available on the USD INR movement. It would be of great help if you can send any information on this topic.

Also, the economic indicators have tremendous potential to move prices in the markets. And market participants will place higher regard on one stat vs. another depending on the state of the economy. The macroeconomic factors that I am looking at are Indian GDP, Inflation, Capital flows & Trade flows. Are there any other factors that play a significant role in the currency movement? And how important are the US economy stats in USD INR movement?
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#4
Yes I want the historical data & any trends/patterns if available on the USD INR movement. It would be of great help if you can send any information on this topic.

Also, the economic indicators have tremendous potential to move prices in the markets. And market participants will place higher regard on one stat vs. another depending on the state of the economy. The macroeconomic factors that I am looking at are Indian GDP, Inflation, Capital flows & Trade flows. Are there any other factors that play a significant role in the currency movement? And how important are the US economy stats in USD INR movement?
Unlike other currencies, not much of speculative trading takes place in the INR-USD pair.

Thus, the price of INR against USD is mostly dependant on actual demand and supply of the USD in India and not on expectations of traders.

The two biggest factors that determine INR-USD exchange rate are the trade account surplus/deficit and capital (investments) account surplus/deficit.

This data is made available by RBI on quarterly basis.

You will get the details of "balance of payments" here.

For FY 2009 Q1, India had a current account deficit of $10.7 billion and capital account surplus of $13.2 billion.

====================================

For earlier quarters, the figures ($ million) are as follows:

2007-08:Q4 A Current Account -1041
2007-08:Q4 B CAPITAL ACCOUNT 25425
2007-08:Q3 A Current Account -5117
2007-08:Q3 B CAPITAL ACCOUNT 31300
2007-08:Q2 A Current Account -4944
2007-08:Q2 B CAPITAL ACCOUNT 33960
2007-08:Q1 A Current Account -6301
2007-08:Q1 B CAPITAL ACCOUNT 17346

====================================

As you may notice, India's trade account is always in deficit. India imports more than what it exports. This creates a constant downward pressure on the INR.

The direction of the net capital flows determine if INR will get stronger or weaker.
 
#5
USD/INR Historical Data

You want just historical data?

or you want your data to be updated daily?

I have 1997-2008 price data if you want, but once you get it, you will have to update it yourself

You are right about theoretical concepts not really working in INR-USD movement.

The reason is that the market is dominated by one single player (RBI + other PSU banks that RBI controls).

RBI doesn't trade on charts.

It decides what the right levels should be for the INR and then tries to balance demand-supply around that level.
Hi,

I need USD/INR historical data in 5 minutes time frame (maximum available).

Please guide me.

Thanks & Regards,
Manikandan.
 
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