The 80-Year Financial Cycle


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The 80-Year Financial Cycle

by Robert Hahl

I didn't believe in long financial cycles until recently, but the theory of the 80-year cycle is interesting: After a financial crash/big-war the survivors build and save for 20 years.

The next generation spends what has been saved, over the next 20 years.

The following generation borrows for 20 years.

The fourth generation can't borrow anymore, but can't build or save due to the burden of debts, which are never forgiven, so there is a big-war to settle all accounts.

Repeat ...

If you allow that the American Civil War was probably set in motion by the financial panic of 1857, and that the American Revolution was also a solution to financial issues, this cycle explains American history very well. The same can be said of Europe, starting with the French Revolution.

The original source book on the financial cycle is "Generations" by Neil Howe and the late William Strauss.

The financial causes of the Civil War are discussed in "Throes of Democracy, The American Civil War Era 1829-1877" by Prof. Walter A. McDougall