USD-INR Chart

#41
stocks are down!!
There is a distinct possibility that a Bull Flag pattern formation is setting up currently in the US Dollar Index, and we should know for sure by the end of next week if not early into the following week as to whether this set-up will be confirmed (triggered) or not.
was the bull flag set up on dollar chart confirmed?? what was the confirmation?
 

man4urheart

Well-known member
#42
I just wanted to highlight this potential quickly, and note that a move higher than $77.50 and especially $80.00 would confirm the bull flag pattern and the expectation for a move to take price to the $80.50 target.

However, a move from here that continues to swing downward through the $76.50 support area - and especially beneath $76.00 - would undermine and invalidate the flag pattern.
The move has been already higher than $77.50 as dollar closed at 78.38
 

man4urheart

Well-known member
#43


Here are my long term targets for dollar. You know I have been bullish on dollar and my long term target is 60 Rs.

The sad part is I don't trade currency, so I cannot take advantage of it.

Also I cannot figure out impact on scrips like TCS, Infosys when dollar goes to 60.

Alchemist any experience sharing!
 

San Yad

Active member
#44
You know I have been bullish on dollar and my long term target is 60 Rs.

The sad part is I don't trade currency, so I cannot take advantage of it.

Alchemist any experience sharing!
Things are not going in the way of INR 60 target.

Again Dollar is strengthening and INR is weakening.

I noticed when Dow starts moving up, INR starts in reverse side.

Any thoughts for currency update in near future?
 
#47
The chart was monthly with 60 Target. Give it few months!

In fact, 45.49 will not be broken! Consider this good support
You are on the right track.

Robert Prechter has also predicted a Rs 60 target for the INR. He says that would complete a downtrend for the INR that started way back in the 70s.
 
#48
Here's what Robert Prechter had to say about India:

The Sensex declined in three waves to its 2008 low and has since advanced in five, which means that the Indian stocks are in a long-term bull market. Meanwhile, the rupee continues its long impulsive decline since 1972 against the US dollar. We maintain our long-standing target of 60 rupees per USD, the point where Primary wave [5]* would equal 1.618 times Primary wave [1]*, a common relationship.

NOTE: *degrees normally denoted by circles are here presented with brackets.

Refer http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/capsum.htm for acceptable notations for labeling Elliott Wave patterns at every degree of trend:
 
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San Yad

Active member
#50
But what is the time frame for INR 60 to be reached. Did he mention whether it is in one year or 2 or 5 years?

On contrary, I see there are lots of resistance even before Rs.50. So time being I am looking at these resistances.

If we reach Rs 60 then Some of the banks might rush to Govt for money lending.

As mentioned, IT companies will be most affected too.

In sum, double dip would be confirmed and Should I speculate that we will be facing like then same situation as we see in Europe countries currently ?

Happy Investing
 
#53
Rupee at present level of around 45 seems overbought and is ripe for correction. Though I am bearish on USD-INR pair in the long run, I expect bounce again upto 46.25 levels which could be attractive level to short.
 

man4urheart

Well-known member
#55


The USD Bull looks back with retest of 61.8% and killing stoploss of people long since April 2010!

And nobody expects it to go up, so it would be interesting.

Sensex and gold is down and Dollar is up!
 

San Yad

Active member
#56
Since you brought up chart. :D.

Again my obvious question keep coming in mind.

Your long term view is still intact for dollar to go up to Rs. 60 :).

However, we are far far away from there.

Happy Investing !
 

man4urheart

Well-known member
#58


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Enjoy! the breakout has happened after respecting the stop loss for 1.5 years or per say consolidation. It was a huge consolidation to build for a strong move!

Fundamental reasons

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/international-markets/dow-could-crash-to-30002013-author_585445.html

As the deleveraging process takes place and most asset classes fall, Dent says the one asset that will return to its safe haven status will be the greenback,
"Debts get written off. That destroys dollars. It makes the dollars more scarce. It restores its value.
 

paran

Active member
#59
Enjoy! the breakout has happened after respecting the stop loss for 1.5 years or per say consolidation. It was a huge consolidation to build for a strong move!
Very well predicted :congrats:

As of now 1 USD = Rs:48.88. USD is getting stronger again and also against other currencies too.
 

San Yad

Active member
#60
I had a hard time holding tight USD for long which were bought almost at peak rate on those days. :(

I have not sold out yet but I felt pain since past years when it dipped.

Now a bit relaxed after seeing INR hitting 49.80 today. :D.

Happy Investing!
 
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