Vivek Patil's Technical Analysis Report?

San Yad

Active member
BTW in such a bull market, no technical works. :D.

Such bullish scenario can take Sensex anywhere that we never imagine in last one year. :).

Happy Investing
 
Elliot wave has gone terribly wrong, as before.

These analysts are just making a time-pass. Don't make your investment decisions based on these people's analysis.

Analyze yourself and invest with conviction.

Else, invest through a SIP in any top mutual fund scheme. They have given a return of about 25-30% p.a, despite the crash of 2008.
 
No technical analysis (including EW) can give a one-sided picture on market direction. It is always an expectation and probable scenario with caveats on when to revisit the view. There is no holy grail.

We cannot then find fault with a method that will give probable scenarios

I agree that many EW blogs were calling for a top (including neo-wave followers). But there were few that have called for an upside break-out and have questioned the wave counts of even Neely (by using his own methods). It is possible that VP might eventually change his count for a much higher target ; if we were to treat the entire up move from March 09 as a major "a", the long sideways as a neutral triangle or a double flat "b" and the current break-out as "c" all within the major B.

Cheers.
 
By analysing the wave count from 7500 till date and being bearish, thinking that this is the last wave count for uptrend to finish we have lost the entire bull cycle of 7500 to 20500.

We have to be rationale rather to be on one side thinking.
 
After having our target near Grid of 20250, Sensex is now trading above it. A decisive move sustaining above 20250 can open the next Grid level of 22700.
Really? This makes me uncomfortable. I have a lot of money in shares now. I think I have some bad stocks because they are below my buying price. Should I get out now even if profit OR loss? Fear of losing more :(.
P.S: Overall portfolio is in decent profit.
 
Here is a technical analyst , who talks about p/e ratio, fundamentally expensive etc.

He has gone wayward in his technical analyis, and he is searching for solution from p/e etc.
 
Vivek Patil's Analysis is Confusing.

Dear Alchemist,

1. He predicted 20000+ for Sensex when it was trading around 8000!

2. He predicted sub-10000 Sensex level when it cracked 18000!!

3. He wrongly predicted Sensex target of around 5500 when it was 8000 in Oct 2008 & March 2009!!! In addition, he consistently failed to predict mother of all bull market in March 2009. Now he became bullish- probably we are sitting in last leg of intermediate bull-market correction!!!
 
Don't Stop Reading!

Take contra view upon reading his analysis.

Some of his views could be correct: -

1. Index takes more than 50% hit every eight years -

It happened in 1992, 2000 & 2008.

2. Leaders of bull market will become laggards in next bull phase for many years-

See real-estate & Ambani Group stocks.

Current bull market leaders are financial & auto sector.
 

man4urheart

Well-known member
Well we are in a phase when most of counts are unclear Whether Elliotwave or Neo Wave.

That is reason his targets are not very clear.

But some of his views are solid.

Leaders of this rally will be laggards, so don't keep holding the baby, when he starts crying.

8 years cyclical theory is also interesting one!
 
I think he didn't predict this. He just extracted from the charts what is already happening in the market.
I am not a fan of Vivek Patil and have given up reading his posts now. But to his credit he did forecast the 2008 crash based on the 8 year cycle.

I read his posts regularly in 2007 and distinctly remember that the 8 year cycle was listed in one of the alternate scenarios well before the crash.
 

San Yad

Active member
I am not a fan of Vivek Patil and have given up reading his posts now. But to his credit he did forecast the 2008 crash based on the 8 year cycle.

I read his posts regularly in 2007 and distinctly remember that the 8 year cycle was listed in one of the alternate scenarios well before the crash.
We should be prepared for another crash in 2016 then. :D.

Does it mean to sell everything in 2015? If so who is gonna to buy?:)

Happy Investing
 
We should be prepared for another crash in 2016 then. :D.

Does it mean to sell everything in 2015? If so who is gonna to buy?:)
This is what is known as a self fulfilling prophecy.

Assuming the prophecy is going to come true, people will sell en masse. Because people sell, the prophecy will come true.
 
Top