YES Bank

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#41
Yesterday's volume on NSE was 3,66,48,675 and delivered quantity was 1,19,71,525.

Yesterday's volume on BSE was 80,89,185 and delivered quantity was 34,45,779.

Total traded volume: 4,47,37,860.
Total delivery volume: 1,54,17,304.

Total shares issued: 35,97,20,935.
Free float: 26,74,78,485.

5.76% of the free float was delivered yesterday.
16.73% of the free float was traded yesterday.

These are very disturbing figures.
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#42
The free float of Yes bank is now little less than Rs 7000 crore.

Once again it's the top traded stock on both exchanges.

(Ultratech is top traded stock on BSE, but there was a major bulk deal in it).
 
#43
Yesterday's volume on NSE was 3,66,48,675 and delivered quantity was 1,19,71,525.

Yesterday's volume on BSE was 80,89,185 and delivered quantity was 34,45,779.

Total traded volume: 4,47,37,860.
Total delivery volume: 1,54,17,304.

Total shares issued: 35,97,20,935.
Free float: 26,74,78,485.

5.76% of the free float was delivered yesterday.
16.73% of the free float was traded yesterday.

These are very disturbing figures.
Alchemist, why do you feel that it is very disturbing? Isn't it normal for stocks exhibiting high volatility in a day tends to gather intraday trader's attention?

I don't think it can go up quickly from these levels. So the delivery sellers could be smart guys.
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#44
Alchemist, why do you feel that it is very disturbing? Isn't it normal for stocks exhibiting high volatility in a day tends to gather intraday trader's attention?
I feel it's disturbing because the stock is crashing with very high delivery volumes.

Yesterday Yes Bank's stock traded in 233-253 range.

IndusInd had a range of 345-370.

Both stocks were volatile to almost the same extent.

-------------------------------------

IndusInd's free float at the end of the day price was Rs 15541 crore.

It's traded volume value was Rs 228 crore.

Thus, 1.47% of the free float was traded in IndusInd Bank.

The deliverable quantity was 44.01%

-------------------------------------

Yes Bank's free float at the end of the day price was Rs 6486 crore.

It's traded volume value was Rs 756 crore.

Thus, 11.66% of the free float was traded in Yes Bank.

The deliverable quantity was 37.23%.

37.23% X 11.66% = 4.34%.

4.34% of Yes Bank's free float was marked for delivery on NSE yesterday.

If one adds BSE's volume too, the deliverable quantity goes to 4.88% of the free float.

In other words almost 5% of the non-promoter investors exited the stock in a single day.

The deliverable quantity on 21st was even higher at 5.76% of the free float.

It is possible that some buyers on 21st exited on 22nd, but in total over 10% of the bank's free float has been sold in last 2 days.
 
#48
Could you elaborate on why you think so?
The floor traders in the exchanges have to buy and sell the shares as long as the price is in the upper and lower limits of circuit range. For Nifty and many A group stocks there is no upper and lower limit for a given day.

The floor traders have the freedom to provide the bid and ask rate for the given stock. But they are committed to provide liquidity. The exchanges (NSE and BSE) give these traders a spot in exchange for the liquidity.
 
#49
The floor traders in the exchanges have to buy and sell the shares as long as the price is in the upper and lower limits of circuit range. For Nifty and many A group stocks there is no upper and lower limit for a given day.

The floor traders have the freedom to provide the bid and ask rate for the given stock. But they are committed to provide liquidity. The exchanges (NSE and BSE) give these traders a spot in exchange for the liquidity.
There is market making activity that some participants do,but I don't agree with the view that no investor is interested in the stock and all the buying is only speculative but the sellers are so extremely savvy and smart.

Buyers and sellers have their own reasons and motivating factors.

I would like to add two quotes by Peter Lynch:

"The smart money isn't so smart, and the dumb money isn't really as dumb as it thinks. Dumb money is only dumb when it listens to smart money"

"Historically, stocks are embraced as investments or dismissed as gambles in routine and circular fashion, and usually at the wrong times. Stocks are most likely to be accepted as prudent at the moment they’re not."
 
#50
Things don't work like this anymore. Indian markets have no market makers or any floor trading. Buy and sell orders are directly matched against each other electronically.
 
#51
There is market making activity that some participants do,but I don't agree with the view that no investor is interested in the stock and all the buying is only speculative but the sellers are so extremely savvy and smart.

Buyers and sellers have their own reasons and motivating factors.

I would like to add two quotes by Peter Lynch:

"The smart money isn't so smart, and the dumb money isn't really as dumb as it thinks. Dumb money is only dumb when it listens to smart money"

"Historically, stocks are embraced as investments or dismissed as gambles in routine and circular fashion, and usually at the wrong times. Stocks are most likely to be accepted as prudent at the moment they’re not."
First of all, I admit I'm biased towards the technicals. I have seen them work day in and day out.

Being a little paranoid, I don't trust any balance sheet. In my opinion, the actual financials of every listed company are very much different from what is shown in their books. It's only when the company lands up in trouble do these things come out to the surface.

The economy is deteriorating and almost all banks are showing a rising trend in NPA's. But look at yes bank. That thing is showing not only a good growth in profits quarter in an quarter out but also showing falling NPA's. Yes bank has a lot of exposure to the SME sector. How is that possible?

Maybe it's an awesome bank which has cracked the secret and is somehow not affected by the Macro-economy.

I myself always look at the price. The price never lies.

The price of Yes banks stock is falling and there is heavy volume shows that the sellers are desperate to get out regardless of the price.

That can mean one of two things IMO

1) There is panic/fear for no reason.
2) The sellers know something and are aggressively getting out of the stock.

I don't know which one it is. But all I know is I would never be a buyer in such instance.

Things dont work like this anymore. Indian markets have no market makers or any floor trading. Buy and sell orders are directly matched against each other electronically.
Even though NSE and BSE are "Order driven markets", there are market makers in both of them.

NSE identifies them as "Pros". Market makers usually don't take on risk though. Most of them simply engage in arbitrage kind of strategies and enhance liquidity.
 
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#52
First of all, I admit I'm biased towards the technicals. I have seen them work day in and day out.

Being a little paranoid, I don't trust any balance sheet. In my opinion, the actual financials of every listed company are very much different from what is shown in their books. It's only when the company lands up in trouble do these things come out to the surface.

The economy is deteriorating and almost all banks are showing a rising trend in NPA's. But look at yes bank. That thing is showing not only a good growth in profits quarter in an quarter out but also showing falling NPA's. Yes bank has a lot of exposure to the SME sector. How is that possible?

Maybe it's an awesome bank which has cracked the secret and is somehow not affected by the Macro-economy.

I myself always look at the price. The price never lies.

The price of Yes banks stock is falling and there is heavy volume shows that the sellers are desperate to get out regardless of the price.

That can mean one of two things IMO

1) There is panic/fear for no reason.
2) The sellers know something and are aggressively getting out of the stock.

I don't know which one it is. But all I know is I would never be a buyer in such instance.
Probabilities,that all this is,betting on the odds of an outcome.

Fundamental analysis or Technical analysis are just tools,data keeps updating one more tick of price action or another quarter of results,they all have limitations plus we humans are full of limitations,so i will refrain from being critical on either form of analysis,though i use both.

Nobody is asking you to trust any balance sheet,i believe in 'Trust but verify' and in this case the market may also be worried about their off balance sheet liabilities,so you should be skeptical as banks are complex entities and lot of NPA can be swept under the rug.

Clearly you are a believer in the Efficient market hypothesis which states that the market knows and prices in everything,and the price is always right.

Well,who am i to tell you that you are wrong,if it works for you,i am happy for you :).

Seeing what someone doesn't want you to see and seeing things that don't exist are very different.

Finally coming to Yes Bank,

Economy is deteriorating,it has been so for the past 8 quarters,what is the market worried about now?

The answer is the stock fell after RBI announced certain measures on July 15.

Their loan book size is only Rs 48000 Cr,so the base for loan growth is not as large as the bigger banks.

Regarding NPA,the management had said a couple of quarters ago that they have around 1% of the loan book that is slightly under stress,which they have covered by floating provisions that they made in Q1,so we may see some slippages but they are adequately provided for as of now.

Looking at the past,they also had micro finance loan exposure and who can forget the Deccan episode.

Now after the price has crashed their fund raising plans may also go into abeyance.

Also,a lot of the profits of the last quarter were from treasury income.

The promoter feud that is going on is another sore spot.

There has been heavy selling,no contesting that point but are there only 2 reasons? These are some more that came off the top of my head:

1.Redemption pressure.

2.Margin Call.

3.Stock falling and fund manager doesn't want to explain to his committee on why he is still holding the stock.

4.They have gone underweight the entire sector and decided to exit the banks,given the state of the Indian economy.

5.The currency is falling and hence the fund has had enough.

6.Some other stocks have fallen,so maybe they are switching to something else.

7.It's too painful to hold.

8.Stop losses triggering.

9.Huge short selling,especially when they own large amounts of the stock.

Omg,this post has gotten insanely long:eek: & I should totally stop now.
 
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#53
Probabilities,that all this is,betting on the odds of an outcome.

Fundamental analysis or Technical analysis are just tools,data keeps updating one more tick of price action or another quarter of results,they all have limitations plus we humans are full of limitations,so i will refrain from being critical on either form of analysis,though i use both.
Yes, it's definitely a game of probabilities.
But of the two forms of analysis, I believe technicals is the more better one. Markets are not rational creatures, they are emotional and tend to have a herd mentality. Fundamental analysis fails to capture this angle of the markets.

I never meant technicals are correct 100% :)
I am a speculator primarily (not an "investor") and I think technicals are right about 50% of the time.
Obviously there are high probability setups in technical analysis which have a probability of around 90% but still, its not 100% accurate and I completely agree with you here.

Nobody is asking you to trust any balance sheet,i believe in 'Trust but verify' and in this case the market may also be worried about their off balance sheet liabilities,so you should be skeptical as banks are complex entities and lot of NPA can be swept under the rug.
Yes, we could do some forensic accounting to try to figure out if the balance sheets are "highly manipulated". But its pretty cumbersome and probably best left to the "experts".

Clearly you are a believer in the Efficient market hypothesis which states that the market knows and prices in everything,and the price is always right.
No, no!
I am a firm opposer of the EMH. I believe that the price discounts everything (which is a core tenant of technical analysis) but I do not believe the markets are efficient.

EMH entails that no body can generate alpha and any alpha generated is basically random.

The sole purpose of a speculator is to generate alpha!

Economy is deteriorating,it has been so for the past 8 quarters,what is the market worried about now?

The answer is the stock fell after RBI announced certain measures on July 15.
Whatever the reason maybe the market started to crack from around 24th July.
Almost all stocks corrected but some corrected a lot and one of them which corrected the most is Yes Bank which basically become half. :D

There has been heavy selling,no contesting that point but are there only 2 reasons?,these are some more that came off the top of my head:
1.Redemption pressure.
2.Margin Call.
3.Stock falling and fund manager doesn't want to explain to his committee on why he is still holding the stock.
4.They have gone underweight the entire sector and decided to exit the banks,given the state of the Indian economy.
5.The currency is falling and hence the fund has had enough.
6.Some other stocks have fallen,so maybe they are switching to something else.
7.It's too painful to hold.
8.Stop losses triggering.
9.Huge short selling,especially when they own large amounts of the stock.
I was trying to classify the selling pressure on the basis of
1) People selling due to an emotional reason.
2) People selling due to a fundamental/logical reason. :)
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#55
Whats the possibility of YES BANK meeting fate similar to GTB?

My concern is for the safety of FDs with this Bank.
Very low as of now.

GTB had very serious problems for many years before it collapsed.

Till now Yes Bank hasn't reported any serious NPA problems like GTB.
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#56
Whats the possibility of YES BANK meeting fate similar to GTB?

My concern is for the safety of FDs with this Bank.

Looking at today's fall, I think it is time that depositors keep a close watch on the bank and also avoid fresh deposits.

Yes Bank is a pretty big bank now and RBI won't allow any accident, but being cautious won't bring any harm.
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#58
Hi Alchemist,

Is this fall in Yes bank share price justified due to RBI action of not allowing CEO to stay beyond next January?
Time will tell.

Yes Bank has been under-reporting NPAs for some time now.

There is fear in the market that once the new CEO comes, he will aggressively reset the balance sheet and that in turn will drastically slow down the bank's growth.
 

Alchemist

Administrator
Staff member
#59
Kotak's Sanjeev Prasad today expressed doubts about Yes Bank's loan book in an interview on CNBC TV18. It is surprising that in spite of deteriorating economic conditions and high exposure to SME sector, Yes Bank has hardly seen any increase in NPLs in the last few quarters. I will post the link to the interview as soon as it is published on moneycontrol.com.
The above post was made 6 and half years back.

Yes Bank's accounting and lending practices have been questionable for a very long time.

What took the regulators so long to act against the people running the show?
 
#60
What is the most likely outcome for Yes Bank now? Is there any chance that it will survive and continue to trade, or will it eventually close down?
 
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